Observations
Consumer sentiment. How good is it?
Probably, the most intriguing question about the US economy is why consumer spending is so resilient despite high rates and rising unemployment. The most recent July readings show acceleration in the unemployment uptrend and, at the same time, near-record-low savings rate reflecting spending frenzy of US consumers.
2024 Q2 reporting—consumer spending trends
Consumer spending is probably the most important gauge of the current economic conditions. Household savings are returning to the pre-pandemic levels, and that can affect the economy substantially. We selected commentaries various companies made on the matter.
US Retail Sales. Fresh take
The Retail Sales gauge that came in on Tuesday, July 16th rose by most in three months.
It should be kept in mind, however, that the retail sales expectations are only made based on the seasonally adjusted figure. The non-adjusted one does not look so bright.
UK Inflation
At its meeting on June 20th the Bank of England
took a decision to keep the key rate unchanged. Many had expected the first
cut, though, as the day earlier the UK headline inflation came in at the 2%
level for the first time since pandemic.
Retail sales
Like in case of inflation, the US retail sales have been gradually cooling off over the past year. The recent two readings brought negative surprises, but it also was no more than fluctuations around the falling trend.
Defensive stocks
Q3 financial reporting released by Verizon on the 24th of October mirrored a typical picture for large telecommunication companies: their revenues and profits are stable and well predictable. Verizon’s EPS came in 3% higher than expectations, AT&T beat expectations both in sales and profits.